Ten little monkeys were jumping on a bed. There is a 35% chance that one will fall off and bump his head. In the bedroom next door, five kangaroos were jumping on a bed. Being more adept at jumping, there is only a 20% that a kangaroo will fall off the bed.
The monkeys manage to go a whole week without someone bumping their head. One of the kangaroos insists that they are due for an injury. Another says they must be getting better at their jumping skills. Do you think they're due for a crash?