Daniel notices that every year with a mild winter, his roses begin to bloom in February, but every year with a severe winter, his roses do not begin to bloom until April. He concludes that the severity of the winter is responsible for the month in which his roses begin to bloom. Daniel is
◦ definitely confusing correlation with causation.
◦ very probably correct in his conclusion that the severity of the winter is a cause of when his roses begin to bloom.
◦ likely correct that there is causation, but the causation is more likely running in the opposite direction in that the initial blooming of his roses is the cause of the severity of the previous winter.
◦ probably misguided in that there is no apparent correlation or causation in this situation.