Zachary notices that every time he washes his car, it rains the next day. He concludes that washing his car causes the next day's rain. Zachary is
◦ definitely confusing correlation with causation.
◦ very probably correct in his conclusion that washing his car causes the next day's rain to fall.
◦ likely correct that there is causation, but the causation is more likely running in the opposite direction in that the upcoming rain was responsible for Zachary's decision to wash his car.
◦ probably misguided in that there is no apparent correlation or causation in this situation.