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Mathematics Clinic => Statistics => Topic started by: Jipu 123 on Apr 14, 2020

Title: Suppose that you and a friend read the following statement in a news report, "A recent poll found ...
Post by: Jipu 123 on Apr 14, 2020: Suppose that you and a friend read the following statement in a news report, "A recent poll found that 54% of voters, give or take 3%, plan to vote for candidate X in the next election (with a confidence level of 95%)". Your friend then makes the statement, "Hey, look, there's a 95% chance that somewhere between 51% and 57% of voters plan to vote for candidate X!" How would you explain to your friend why his statement is incorrect, be sure to provide your friend with the correct interpretation of the confidence interval.
Title: Suppose that you and a friend read the following statement in a news report, "A recent poll found ...
Post by: bookworm410 on Apr 14, 2020: Answers will vary, but should reference the fact that there is no chance that the population parameter will change, which is implied when one interprets a confidence level as a probability. The correct interpretation is that the proportion of voters who plan to vote for candidate X is between 51% and 57%, with a confidence level of 95% which means the process used to produce the interval will capture the true population proportion 95% of the time.
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