Lydia is 48 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy as an undergraduate. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and she participated in anti- nuclear demonstrations. Which of the following alternatives is most probable?
a. Lydia is a U.S. Congresswoman.
b. Lydia is a U.S. Congresswoman and active in the feminist movement.
c. Lydia is a state governor.
d. Lydia is a state governor and active in the feminist movement.
Question 2
Greg was recounting a fishing tale of the one that got away: I had a huge ahi tuna on my line. I fought for it for a few minutes, then my line snapped. The tuna swam away across the pond. Greg's friend, Matt, didn't believe his story because Matt knew that tuna are salt-water fish and aren't found in ponds. Greg's account contains
a. descriptive information that is inconsistent with base rate information.
b. a belief bias.
c. inductive reasoning based on observations of multiple, specific cases.
d. a focusing illusion.
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