This topic contains a solution. Click here to go to the answer

Author Question: Each day a weather forecaster gives a certain prediction of rain. How can you use these predictions ... (Read 74 times)

james9437

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 568
Each day a weather forecaster gives a certain prediction of rain. How can you use these predictions to see if his/her probabilities are well calibrated? Assume you have the following data recorded for each day: what chance of rain was forecasted, and whether or not it actually rained that day.

Question 2

Which of the following applies to the problem of overconfidence in personal probability assessment?
 a. Research shows that the more confident people are that they are right, the more the true proportion of correct answers falls below the perceived probability of being right.
  b. One way to help eliminate overconfidence is to get people to consider reasons why they might be wrong.
  c. When people venture a guess about something for which they are uncertain, they tend to overestimate the probability that they are correct.
  d. All of the above.



Related Topics

Need homework help now?

Ask unlimited questions for free

Ask a Question
Marked as best answer by a Subject Expert

jxjsniuniu

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 343
Answer to Question 1

OF THE TIMES HE/SHE GAVE A 30 CHANCE OF RAIN, IT SHOULD HAVE RAINED 30 OF THE TIME, ETC. NOTE: THIS IS MORE DETAILED THAN JUST DETERMINING THE PERCENTAGE OF TIMES HE/SHE WAS CORRECT OVERALL.

Answer to Question 2

D




james9437

  • Member
  • Posts: 568
Reply 2 on: Jul 24, 2018
Wow, this really help


gcook

  • Member
  • Posts: 343
Reply 3 on: Yesterday
Gracias!

 

Did you know?

Aspirin is the most widely used drug in the world. It has even been recognized as such by the Guinness Book of World Records.

Did you know?

Certain topical medications such as clotrimazole and betamethasone are not approved for use in children younger than 12 years of age. They must be used very cautiously, as directed by a doctor, to treat any child. Children have a much greater response to topical steroid medications.

Did you know?

Carbamazepine can interfere with the results of home pregnancy tests. If you are taking carbamazepine, do not try to test for pregnancy at home.

Did you know?

The top five reasons that children stay home from school are as follows: colds, stomach flu (gastroenteritis), ear infection (otitis media), pink eye (conjunctivitis), and sore throat.

Did you know?

Symptoms of kidney problems include a loss of appetite, back pain (which may be sudden and intense), chills, abdominal pain, fluid retention, nausea, the urge to urinate, vomiting, and fever.

For a complete list of videos, visit our video library