Debbie realizes that her twin brother Dudley breaks out in hives every time he eats oysters, and concludes that when Dudley feels a case of hives coming on, he must get a craving for oysters. Debbie is
◦ definitely confusing correlation with causation.
◦ very probably correct in her conclusion that Dudley craves oysters whenever he is about to break out in hives.
◦ likely correct that there is causation, but the causation is more likely running in the opposite direction in that eating oysters is the probable cause of Dudley's hives.
◦ probably misguided in that there is no apparent correlation or causation in this situation.