Each day a weather forecaster gives a certain prediction of rain. How can you use these predictions to see if his/her probabilities are well calibrated? Assume you have the following data recorded for each day: what chance of rain was forecasted, and whether or not it actually rained that day.
Question 2
Which of the following applies to the problem of overconfidence in personal probability assessment?
a. Research shows that the more confident people are that they are right, the more the true proportion of correct answers falls below the perceived probability of being right.
b. One way to help eliminate overconfidence is to get people to consider reasons why they might be wrong.
c. When people venture a guess about something for which they are uncertain, they tend to overestimate the probability that they are correct.
d. All of the above.
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Rain exercise