If the rate of change in output is negative
◦ then the economy is in the expansionary phase of the business cycle regardless of the overall level of output.
◦ but the level of output is high, then the economy is still in the expansionary phase of the business cycle.
◦ but the level of output is low, then the economy is entering the expansionary phase of the business cycle.
◦ then the economy is in the contractionary phase of the business cycle regardless of the overall level of output.