Answer to Question 1
Computational models are the programs that create the simulations. What-if scenarios are plugged into a model. Models can be built to answer all sorts of different questions about epidemics. Anyone in the community can catch or spread disease through contact with other people. Scientists use models to see how a person gets infected and then how he or she spreads the disease. They can change variables to yield different results and answer different questions. Two of these variables are the size of the community and the virulence of the infection. Using very powerful computers, the models may produce millions of possible outcomes, none of which may develop. However, computer simulations or models may help the public health officials prepare for outbreaks in states, nations, and globally.
Currently, the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) is modeling flu and asking if we can contain it at the source. In the model, they test measures such as vaccination, the distribution of antiviral medications, the closing of schools, and the quarantining of neighborhoods or of infected people. Public health officials are also studying what could happen if the flu spreads, for example, in the United States, given the amount that people travel. In 2010, simulation modeling of the H1N1 flu, some using patterns followed by the Great Flu Pandemic of 1918, predicted that the rapid development and delivery of vaccines would have a disproportionately large impact in reducing rates of infection
Answer to Question 2
B
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