Answer to Question 1
E
Answer to Question 2
In order to keep oil prices high, as has been the case since 2003, OPEC creates a target level of output designed to achieve a particular high price. OPEC's goal is to set a price high enough so that its member nations earn the maximum economic profit. Once the target output is set, OPEC assigns a production quota to each member. As long as each member adheres to its quota the price will remain high and stable. However, from time to time, individual nations cheat on the agreement by producing more oil than they are allowed. Nations cheat because they realize that if they alone cheat, the impact on oil prices will be slight but the impact on their profit will be large. Once this oil shows up on world markets, the supply of oil increases and prices begin to fall. Then, once prices begin to fall other members begin to panic and they start selling more oil too in order to get the highest price they can before a collapse takes place. If every nation cheats, the supply will increase more than if just a few do and the collapse in price becomes a self-realizing prophecy.
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Bayesian Analysis of the Genotype of II-2 in Figure A.4