One day, a tree on the Lakewood Golf Course was hit by lightning. The following weekend, Galen continues his golf game near that tree during a thunderstorm because he is certain that lightning will not strike there twice. Galen's decision is based on ____.
a. gambler's fallacy
b. probability heuristic
c. loss aversion
d. multi-attribute decision making
Question 2
After watching the winner of American Idol tell her story of going from a simple girl to a famous singer, Sun was convinced that she too could be on the show and become famous. Suns reaction demonstrates how people tend to ____.
exaggerate the expected value of a future outcome
a. overestimate the probability of unlikely events
b. believe that future events in a random process will be affected by past events
c.
d. ignore negative evidence when making a decision
