The ____ fallacy is a mistaken belief that the probability of a given random event, such as winning or losing at a game of chance, is influenced by previous random events.
a. conditional
b. adjustment
c. gambler's
d. inclusion
Question 2
Michelle studied hard for her sociology test but seems to have focused on the wrong materials. When she looks at her test, she notices that the material she failed to study (and thus did poorly on) was in areas related to her professor's research. She immediately tells herself that she should have known that, since she has had other professors who tested more and in more detail on material related to their research interests. Michelle is experiencing ____.
a. overconfidence
b. the framing effect
c. the illusory correlation
d. the hindsight bias
Higgs Event
The Conjunction Fallacy
Fred Tomaselli, Airborne Event.
Probability Question
Belief that premarital sex is “not wrong at all,” Canada, 1975—2016 (in percent)
Pedigree Probability