Answer to Question 1
Answer: The movement of tropical systems is related to the stage in their development. Tropical disturbances and depressions are guided mainly by the trade winds and, therefore, tend to migrate westward. The influence of the trade winds often diminishes after the depressions intensify into tropical storms. Then the upper-level winds and the spatial distribution of water temperature more strongly determine their speed and direction (with the storms tending to move toward warmer seas). In August, the most likely path of hurricanes tracks over the West Indies. From there, hurricanes are about equally likely to track toward the Texas coast or along the Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina.
Two prominent paths dominate in September. One goes from between the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, northward toward the central Gulf of Mexico coast; the other moves northward from around Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico into the western Atlantic. Hurricanes taking the more easterly track are most likely to hit the middle Atlantic states if they make landfall. October paths exhibit a greater tendency to track from eastern Mexico northward to Florida and the rest of the southeastern United States.
Answer to Question 2
Answer: B
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Describe the Conceptual Forecasting Framework in your own words.
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