Answer to Question 1
Answer: Typically as countries get rich the number of births decline; however, this trend is now being seen in less wealthy countries like China. About two-thirds of Chinese population growth between 2005 and 2025 will occur in the over-65 category as people live longer, a cohort likely to double in size to about 200 million people. By 2025, China's median age may be higher than America's. An aging China is already facing both strains on its pension system and shortages of young labor.
Answer to Question 2
Answer: The Indian government sponsors family- planning programs, and radio and television emphasize that small families are healthier and happier. A new social security program assures people that they will be taken care of by the government in their old age. Abortions are legal, but sterilization accounts for about 90 of India's family-planning program and is practiced by 37 of married Indian women.
In 1979, China launched a so-called one-child policy, offering couples incentives to reduce childbearing, such as financial rewards and special privileges for small families, as well as penalties for exceeding the targets. There are numerous exceptions provided by the policy, however, so that only about a third of the population actually lives under a strict one-child rule and thus the policy, if followed, would create a TFR of about 1.47. The policies have helped to lower China's fertility rate to about 1.6, well below replacement level, although with enormous controversy about the government's tactics. Other factors, such as delayed marriage and changing ideas about family size, are likely contributing to this decline independently of government policy. If these trends continue, China's population will peak during the next two decades before decreasing.
Jeremy Bentham, A General Idea of a Penitentiary Panopticon, drawn by Willey Reveley.
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