Author Question: In 1936, George Gallup correctly predicted the winner of the presidential election to be Franklin ... (Read 156 times)

Redwolflake15 · **on:** Jul 24, 2018

In 1936, George Gallup correctly predicted the winner of the presidential election to be Franklin Roosevelt. His prediction was based on a random sample of 50,000 people. What was the margin of error for Gallup's survey?

Question 2

In the presidential election of 1936, the Democratic incumbent Franklin Roosevelt was re-elected over the Republican challenger Alf Landon. Before the election, the magazine Literary Digest had published the results of a questionnaire sent to 10 million people: 2.3 million people chose to reply to the survey. The poll incorrectly predicted that Landon would win the election. Explain why this prediction was inherently unreliable.

frogdreck123456 · **Reply #1 on:** Jul 24, 2018

Answer to Question 1

Margin of error = 0.0045 or 0.45

Answer to Question 2

The sample of 2.3 million people was a self-selected sample because it was based on voluntary responses. Hence the sample was not representative of the voting population.