Answer to Question 1
Answer: The assumption of the adaptive decision maker model is that people are adaptive in choosing strategies for decision making based on the trade-off of cognitive effort, ease of execution, time, and consequences. The strategies available to them form a cognitive toolbox that includes satisficing, elimination by aspects, heuristics, and expected utility calculations. Important decisions require the use of more cognitively demanding algorithms while less important decisions often use fast-and-frugal strategies. This model provides a more valid description of how people make decisions than the expected utility model alone.
Answer to Question 2
Answer: Prospect theory assumes that our decisions are based upon our perception of the situation. Therefore, the first step in decision making is comprehending potential prospects by framing the terms of the decision. Framing involves simplifying and combining some quantities and evaluating prospective gains and losses in relation to a reference point. The reference point is usually the current situation but is free to vary (i.e., it is not fixed). Once the values and decision weights are determined for each potential prospect, we calculate the expected-value of each prospect in order to select one prospect.
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Describe the Conceptual Forecasting Framework in your own words.
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