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Author Question: Give two tips for improving someone's personal probabilities and ... (Read 45 times)

c0205847

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on: Jul 24, 2018
Give two tips for improving someone's personal probabilities and judgments.

Question 2

Suppose you ask your doctor what your chances are of having complications from the surgery you are about to undergo, and she tells you the chances are less than 5. Which of the following means of her obtaining this probability would you have more faith in?
 a. She gave a personal probability based on her own experience.
  b. She is quoting the relative frequency of complications based on many individuals undergoing the same type of surgery.
  c. Both a) and b) would be equally valid.
  d. None of the above.


lgoldst9

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Reply #1 on: Jul 24, 2018
Answer to Question 1

ANY TWO OF THE FOLLOWING OK: 1) CONSIDER THE BIG PICTURE; 2) FIND THE BASELINE RISK; 3) DON'T BE FOOLED BY HIGHLY DETAILED SCENARIOS; 4) LIST REASONS WHY YOUR JUDGMENT MIGHT BE WRONG; 5) BE REALISTIC IN ASSESSING YOUR OWN INDIVIDUAL RISK; 6) BE AWARE OF MARKETING PRACTICES THAT CAN DISTORT YOUR PERCEPTION OF PROBABILITY AND RISK; 7) BREAK EVENTS INTO PIECES WHEN ASSESSING PROBABILITY.

Answer to Question 2

B


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